Abstract
We provide results on the level of COVID-19 excess mortality in the Italian region of Lombardy and in the province of Bergamo using official and original data sources. Since February 2020 Lombardy and in particular the province of Bergamo have been severely hit by the novel COVID-19 infectious disease. Combining official statistics, retrospective data and original data (i.e., obituaries and death notices) we provide a tentative estimate of the number of deaths either directly or indirectly, associated with COVID-19 as well as the total number of persons infected. Our findings suggest that the reported number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 identified by public authorities accounts only for one half of the observed excess mortality between March 2020 and previous years.
Highlights
The Lombardy region has been at the epicenter of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Italian epidemic
We report an increase going from 5,438 deaths in March 2019 to 14,613 in March 2020, consisting of a 285% growth of the 2020 average mortality rate compared to 2019
Since the spread of the novel COVID-19 emerged in Lombardy in early February 2020, thousands of patients have died, especially in the Province of Bergamo
Summary
The Lombardy region has been at the epicenter of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Italian epidemic. Since the detection in Rome of two COVID-19 positive tourists traveling from Wuhan on January 31, 2020, and the early detection of several cases in the northern area of the country, the disease spread for almost two months without much public intervention. On February 23, 2020, the first COVID-19–associated death was recorded in an hospital of Bergamo, a Lombardy’s province. National politicians, public authorities, and local business industry confederations were dismissing the risks of COVID-19. By the end of March 2020, official reporting from national public authorities, available from the Civil Protection Department data website https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/tree/master/dati-regioni, counted 7,593 COVID-19–associated deaths and 44,773 infected individuals, respectively the 57.7% and 40.5% of all the Italian cases
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
