Estimating the sea level highstand during the last interglacial: a probabilistic massive ensemble approach

Abstract

Essential to understanding sea-level change and its causes during the last interglacial is the quantification of uncertainties. In order to estimate the uncertainties, we develop a statistical framework for the comparison of paleao-climatic sea-level index points and GIA model predictions. For the investigation of uncertainties, as well as to generate better model predictions, we implement a massive ensemble approach by applying a data assimilation scheme based on particle filter methods. The different runs are distinguished through varying ice sheet reconstructions based on oxygen-isotope curves and different parameter selections within the GIA model. This framework has several advantages over earlier work, such as the ability to examine either the contribution of individual observations to the results or the probability of specific input parameters. This exploration of input parameters and data leads to a larger range of estimates than previously published work. We illustrate how the assumptions that enter into the statistical analysis, such as the existence of outliers in the observational database or the initial ice volume history, can introduce large variations to the estimate of the maximum highstand. Thus, caution is required to avoid over-interpreting results. We conclude that there are reasonable doubts whether the datasets previously used in statistical analyses are able to tightly constrain the value of maximum highstand during the last interglacial (LIG).