Estimating the Risk of Technology Development

Abstract

:A case study is presented on risk management as applied to the development of advanced technologies. The success of complex projects depends on the parallel development and integration of diverse technologies. Prior to investing large sums of money in these technologies, stakeholders want to know the risk in technology investment that includes the probability of technology development success and the impact the technology would have on the system. The risk identification process consists of developing the functional and technology needs of the system; collecting data on potential technology solutions; assessing the technology development probability of success for performance, cost, and schedule; determining the impact of the technology on the programs; and developing decision analysis presentations for the stakeholders. Based on a modified analytical hierarchical process, the Internet-Accessible Technology Risk Assessment Collaborative System (ITRACS©) was developed to solicit opinions from experts across the nation for the technology probability of success assessment. In addition, the Framework for Advanced Systems Trade-offs using Probabilistic Analysis of Concepts and Technologies (FASTPACT©) environment was developed to determine the technology impact on the system as measured by program Figures of Merit (FOMs)—safety, cost, and weight. The results from this technology analysis showed that many of the technologies in the present technology investment portfolio were not very effective in impacting the program FOMs, and that in some cases, multiple technologies in the same area should be funded to improve probability of development success.