Estimating the Risk of River Flow under Climate Change in the Tsengwen River Basin

Hsiao-Ping Wei,Yung-Ming Chen,Keh-Chia Yeh,Jun-Jih Liou,Chao-Tzuen Cheng

doi:10.3390/w8030081

Hsiao-Ping Wei, Yung-Ming Chen + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/w8030081

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Abstract

This study evaluated the overflow risk of the Tsengwen River under a climate change scenario by using bias-corrected dynamic downscaled data as inputs for a SOBEK model (Deltares, the Netherlands). The results showed that the simulated river flow rate at Yufeng Bridge (upstream), Erxi Bridge (midstream), and XinZong (1) (downstream) stations are at risk of exceeding the management plan’s flow rate for three projection periods (1979–2003, 2015–2039, 2075–2099). After validation with the geomorphic and hydrological data collected in this study, the frequency at which the flow rate exceeded the design flood was 2 in 88 events in the base period (1979–2003), 6 in 82 events in the near future (2015–2039), and 10 in 81 events at the end of the century (2075–2099).

Highlights

Extreme typhoon precipitation events frequently result in socioeconomic impacts and loss of human life
The peak flows at XinZong 1, Erxi Bridge, and Yufeng Bridge exceeded the management plan flow rate in 2 of 88, 3 of 88, and 1 of
This study used dynamic downscaling data produced by the TCCIP project for river flow rate simulation, and the results highlight the risk of overflow in the Tsengwen River in the future under a climate change scenario

Summary

Introduction

Extreme typhoon precipitation events frequently result in socioeconomic impacts and loss of human life. Increased incidences of extreme rainfall events indicate one of the common features signaling climate change worldwide. The International Panel on Climate Change [1] reported that on average, precipitation has increased globally by approximately 8%. Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) Project Report II included statistical data regarding the frequency of extreme typhoon precipitation events in Taiwan from 1970 to. The statistical results indicated that prior to 2000, the frequency of extreme typhoon precipitation events was approximately once every 2 years; this frequency increased to at least once a year after 2000 [3]. Because of river flow changes caused by extreme rainfall, discharge control structures (culverts, flap gates, weirs, and sluice gates) in river basins are at a high risk of destruction

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