Abstract
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.
Highlights
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date
The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, are 1.51 for Guinea, 2.53 for Sierra Leone and 1.59 for Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa — 3/5
This study provides real-time estimates of EBOV transmission parameters during an ongoing outbreak
Summary
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. While public health interventions have been introduced in all affected countries, the numbers of infected cases and deaths from EBOV continue to increase and the effects of control measures remain to be determined. 4 It will be important to know the reproduction numbers of the current EBOV outbreak and how it is affected by public health interventions. Several studies have fitted mathematical models to data from previous outbreaks of the genus Ebolavirus. This will facilitate making projections of the epidemic during the months and will allow comparisons of the effects of control measures in each country
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
