Estimating the public economic consequences of cardiovascular disease-attributable events and evolocumab treatment in Australia

Abstract

Background Following cardiovascular events, individuals often make choices about their working life that pose fiscal costs for the government in relation to lost tax revenue, increasing disability or early retirement. We evaluate the fiscal consequences for the Australian Government in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with low-density lipoprotein >3.3 mmol/L after the maximum tolerated doses of a statin or when contraindicated or intolerant to statins, compared to evolocumab added to the standard of care. Methods The natural history of patients with ASCVD was evaluated using a multi-state Markov cohort model comparing evolocumab with current treatment practices. Published rates for the likelihood of being disabled and retiring prematurely in patients experiencing stroke or myocardial infarction were modeled. Reported government costs for annual disability payments and lost tax revenues from the nationally representative STINMOD + data set were used to estimate the fiscal consequences associated with attributable ASCVD events. Results The incremental tax gain associated with evolocumab in someone aged 40, 50 or 60 results in additional tax revenues of Aus$15,716, Aus$9,810 and Aus$4,217, respectively. Cost-savings attributed to disability payments of Aus$3,483, Aus$2,495 and Aus$4,619 were observed in those aged 40, 50 and 60, respectively. The ratio of evolocumab to fiscal benefits indicates that up to 52% of evolocumab costs are offset by future lifetime taxes paid and reduced social benefits payments in those treated aged 40. The ratio of fiscal benefits to costs in treating those aged 50 and 60 were 37% and 31%, respectively. Conclusions Applying a cross-sectorial government perspective budget impact assessment improves our understanding of fiscal changes attributed to ASCVD based on changes in premature mortality and work activity and how this influences lifetime tax contributions and public benefits. The main cost driver observed was associated with reduced ASCVD events that enabled people to remain productive and paying taxes.