Estimating the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand

Abstract

This study estimates the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand based on historical data from 1989 to 2009. An econometric panel data model is applied to examine the impact of the changing climatic conditions on mean and variability of rice yields. The empirical estimation results show that a rise in temperature would lead to a reduction in mean rice production and an increase in production variance. On the other hand, increasing precipitation is found to have region-varying effects on rice production. Under projections of future climate change, the simulation results reveal that the substantial change in mean and variability of rice yields arises as a consequence of fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. For instance, mean rice yield would be decreased by 4.56–33.77% and the rice production variability would be increased by 3.87–15.70% in response to different scenarios over the course of the century. Therefore, it is necessary to take immediate adaptive actions appropriately to mitigate the decrease in rice production.