Estimating the population size of female sex workers and transgender women in Sri Lanka

Abstract

We implemented population size estimation of female sex workers (FSW) and transgender women (TGW) in Sri Lanka in 2018 using several approaches (geographical mapping, service and unique object multiplier and a modified Delphi method during the stakeholder consensus meeting). Mapping was done in 49 randomly selected Divisional Secretariats, which provided a basis for extrapolation of size estimates to the national level. Two types of adjustments were applied on the mean (minimum-maximum) population estimate obtained during mapping: (1) an adjustment for mobility to reduce double counting of FSW and TGW frequenting multiple spots, obtained during mapping; (2) an adjustment for “a hidden population”, obtained from surveys among FSW and TGW. For the multiplier method, we used data from services of non-governmental organisations that FSW and TGW were in contact with, and surveys based on respondent-driven sampling. Surveys were carried out in the cities of Colombo (FSW, TGW), Kandy (FSW), Galle (FSW) and Jaffna (TGW). We estimated that there are 30,000 FSWs in Sri Lanka, with a plausible range of 20,000–35,000, which implies a prevalence of FSW of 0.56% (0.37–0.65%) among adult females. This study provided baseline estimates of 2,200 TGW in the country, with a plausible range of 2,000–3,500, which is 0.04% (0.04–0.07%) of adult male population. Our estimates of the proportional contribution of the FSW and TGW populations among the adult population in Sri Lanka are consistent with the The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended estimates for Asia and the Pacific. The results provide an important point for macro- and micro-level planning of HIV services, allocating programme resources and assessing programme coverage and quality.