Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Abstract

BackgroundNeisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. MethodsOur mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). ResultsReduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. ConclusionsA meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.