Estimating the mortality burden attributable to temperature and PM2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric flow

Abstract

The flow of the Earth’s atmosphere not only largely determines its temperature status, but also profoundly affects aerosol concentrations. Therefore, exploring how to evaluate the synthetical effects of temperature and aerosol pollution on human health is an important topic. Regarding the atmosphere as a whole, we quantified the mortality burden attributable to short-term exposure to abnormal temperatures and PM2.5 in Beijing from the perspective of atmospheric flow. We first divided the atmospheric stability into three levels (including disturbed, normal, and stable conditions) according to the variations in meteorological conditions and PM2.5 concentrations across the stable weather index levels. We then applied a generalized additive model to separately evaluate the short-term effects of temperature and PM2.5 on mortality under each level of atmospheric stability. We further estimate the associated mortality burden using two indicators, namely attributable fraction and attributable number of deaths. Abnormal temperatures were responsible for most of the mortality burden. Cold temperatures accounted for a substantially higher mortality burden than hot temperatures. The synthetical mortality effects of temperature and PM2.5 varied for different atmospheric stabilities. A stable atmosphere poses the strongest synthetical effects of temperature and PM2.5, while a normal atmosphere provides comparatively beneficial conditions for human health. Our results indicated that the synthetical health impacts of temperature and PM2.5 driven by atmospheric flow need to be considered in the further promulgation of public health policies and air pollution abatement strategies, particularly in the context of climate change.