Estimating the maximum sustainable yield of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) off Tohoku, Japan via a state‐space stock assessment model with time‐varying natural mortality

Abstract

AbstractA maximum sustainable yield (MSY) obtained by maintaining or restoring fish stock levels is a tangible benefit of ecosystem services. Snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) off Tohoku, Japan has been managed by a total allowable catch since 1996, although the abundance has not increased. Surprisingly, there was no increase after 2011, when fishing pressure was greatly reduced because of the Great East Japan earthquake. This implies that some of the crab's biological characteristics, such as recruits, natural mortality coefficient (M) and terminal molting probabilities (p), might have changed. We developed “just another state‐space stock assessment model” to estimate the MSY of the snow crab off Tohoku considering interannual variations in M and p. The multimodel inference revealed that M increased from 0.2 in 1997 to 0.59 in 2018, although it did not vary according to instars, sex or terminal molt. The parameter p also increased by 1.34–2.46 times depending on the instar growth stages from 1997 to 2018. We estimated the MSYs in three scenarios, which changed drastically if M and p were set as they were in the past or at the current values estimated from this study. This result indicated that the MSY of snow crab would also vary with time based on their time‐varying biological characteristics.