Estimating the market potential for long-haul narrowbody aircraft using origin-destination demand and flight schedules data

Abstract

Air transport has constantly evolved over the past decades. Main drivers affecting the shape of supply were new, e.g. low cost, business models, and new aircraft technologies, like the emergence of jet airliners in the 1950s/1960s. One of the most recent and potentially highly disrupting developments was the announcement by Airbus in 2015 and 2018 to launch new long-range (LR) and extra long-range (XLR) versions of its largest narrowbody aircraft, A321neo. With this step, Airbus is tapping into a market which is covered insufficiently by existing aircraft types. The new Airbus A321 versions will be used to replace the aging fleet of Boeing 757 aircraft, but will also offer airlines the opportunity to serve thin long-haul routes. Airlines may offer a higher number of frequencies than with today’s widebody aircraft or introduce completely new non-stop services, where existing types are either limited in range or have too many seats. We estimate the market potential for long-haul narrowbody aircraft with a model using Sabre’s Market Intelligence origin-destination demand and Innovata’s flight schedules data. Furthermore, the implications of the new long-range narrowbody aircraft for airline business models will be discussed.