Estimating the index flood using indirect methods

Abstract

Three indirect techniques for index flood estimation are analysed in order to evaluate their applicability and effectiveness. These indirect techniques, based on both statistical and conceptual approaches, are applied to a set of 33 hydrometric stations, located in a large area in northern-central Italy. The results show that the statistical model, due to its flexible structure, has a better descriptive ability than the physically-based models, which are rigidly structured as they conceptualize the rainfall-runoff transformation. However, the rigid structure of the conceptual approaches reduces their dependence on the specific information of the single stations and therefore increases their robustness. Finally, the results highlight that direct estimation techniques could be advisable for catchments with peculiar geomorphoclimatic properties; that is to say properties which differ substantively from those of the majority of the basins considered in the identification of the indirect models. This conclusion seems to hold even when a very limited amount of hydrometric information is available.