Estimating the incidence rate of hepatitis B and C in East Azerbaijan, Islamic Republic of Iran.

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) has aimed for a 30% reduction in hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) incidence by 2020. To achieve this goal, it is important to have updated information about trends in the hepatitis incidence rate. However, there is a lack of up-to-date data from East Azerbaijan province in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This study aimed to estimate the HBV and HCV incidence rate from 2011 to 2016 in East Azerbaijan, Islamic Republic of Iran. Hepatitis data and population data were obtained respectively from the national notifiable disease surveillance system and the national Iranian census for 2016. For quantifying the rate of changes in incidence rate from baseline, the average annual rate of reduction (AARR) was calculated. For this, the linear regression model was used for estimating the beta coefficient. SPSS V25 was used for statistical analysis. Over the 6-year period, 3119 hepatitis cases in East Azerbaijan province were reported, of which 94.7% were hepatitis B. The majority of the affected individuals were 25-44 years old. HBV incidence was reduced by 12.71% annually between 2011 and 2016. However, the number of HCV patients increased during 2014-2016, and HCV incidence rate increased insignificantly (β = 0.109, P = 0.39). There is a significant downward trend of HBV in East Azerbaijan due to mass vaccination programmes. In the case of HCV, when considering the availability of effective treatment regimens in addition to education and prevention programmes, policy-makers should focus on HCV screening and diagnosis, especially in the 25-44 age group.