Abstract
What is already known on this topic? Despite the impressive achievements in eliminating tuberculosis (TB), the TB burden is still heavy in China. By 2010, China halved the prevalence and mortality reported in 1990, but China is still one of 30 high-TB burden countries in the world. What is added by this report? A dynamic transmission model including both rifampin resistant TB (RR-TB) and relapse of pulmonary TB was created. The TB incidence of Shanghai in 2025 and 2035 was predicted, and sensitively analysis of reducing transmission, treating latent TB infection (LTBI), and reducing the recurrence rate was conducted. What are the implications for public health practice? Screening for latent TB infections should be carried out regularly in high-risk groups and areas using tuberculin skin testing and/or interferon gamma release assays.
Highlights
China has the highest latent TB infection (LTBI) burden globally with approximately 350 million infections that are at risk for active TB disease (5)
We made the following assumptions: 1) the population was evenly mixed, and contact between all individuals was likely; 2) patients were likely to infect susceptible population and the recovered after contact with them; 3) all detected pulmonary TB cases were reported to National Notifiable Disease Reporting System; and 4)
We reduced the recurrence rate (ω) of the recovered group to study the κτ1(1−σ) κτ1σ κ(1−τ1)σ κ(1−τ1)(1−σ)
Summary
Summary What is already known on this topic? Despite the impressive achievements in eliminating tuberculosis (TB), the TB burden is still heavy in China. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb); E referred to people infected with M. tb but were not yet infectious; I referred to patients with infectious pulmonary TB; IU1 referred to the undetected and drug sensitive population; IU2 referred to the undetected and rifampicin resistant population; IF1 referred to the detected and drug sensitive population; IF2 refers to the detected and rifampicin resistant population; and R referred to TB patients who have been successfully treated In this model, we made the following assumptions: 1) the population was evenly mixed, and contact between all individuals was likely; 2) patients were likely to infect susceptible population and the recovered after contact with them; 3) all detected pulmonary TB cases were reported to National Notifiable Disease Reporting System; and 4).
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