Estimating the impact of vaccination: lessons learned in the first phase of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.

Abstract

Estimates of the global health impact of immunisation are important for quantifying historical benefits as well as planning future investments and strategy. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established in 2016 to provide reliable estimates of the health impact of immunisation. In this article we examine the consortium in its first five-year phase. We detail how vaccine impact was defined and the methods used to estimate it as well as the technical infrastructure required to underpin robust reproducibility of the outputs. We highlight some of the applications of estimates to date, how these were communicated and what their effect were. Finally, we explore some of the lessons learnt and remaining challenges for estimating the impact of vaccines and forming effective modelling consortia then discuss how this may be addressed in the second phase of VIMC. Modelled estimates are not a replacement for surveillance; however, they can examine theoretical counterfactuals and highlight data gaps to complement other activities. VIMC has implemented strategies to produce robust, standardised estimates of immunisation impact. But through the first phase of the consortium, critical lessons have been learnt both on the technical infrastructure and the effective engagement with modellers and stakeholders. To be successful, a productive dialogue with estimate consumers, producers and stakeholders needs to be underpinned by a rigorous and transparent analytical framework as well as an approach for building expertise in the short and long term.