Abstract
Aviation operations are significantly affected by weather conditions, such as high-temperature days. Under global warming, rising temperatures decrease the air density and thus, reduce the maximum takeoff weight of an aircraft. In this study, we investigate the impact of global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in 53 airports in China by combining observational data and CMIP6 climate projections. There is a distinct geographic inhomogeneity of critical temperature, above which the takeoff weight decreases significantly with the increasing air temperature, mostly due to differences in airport elevations. By the end of the century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (with average warming of 5.2 °C in China), the daily maximum temperature for nearly all summer days in West China and for about half of the summer days in East China exceeds critical temperature, indicating that frequent weight restriction will be necessary. We further examine the reduction in carrying capacity due to climate change. By the end of the century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the summer total carrying capacity will be reduced by about 2.8% averaged over all 53 airports. The impacts on airports in West China are nearly four times greater than those in East China, due to the higher vulnerability and stronger warming in West China.
Highlights
The recently released Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global surface temperature in the second decade of the 21st century (2011–2020) was 1.09 ◦C higher than that of 1850–1900, within which the anthropogenic warming is 1.07 ◦C [1]
Its magnitude largely depends on the ongoing climate mitigation strategy, which is represented as different emission scenarios in climate projections [1]
Since the reduction in aircraft takeoff weight is affected by high temperature, we focus on the extended summer months (May–September) following the previous study [15]
Summary
The recently released Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global surface temperature in the second decade of the 21st century (2011–2020) was 1.09 ◦C (the likely range is 0.95~1.20 ◦C) higher than that of 1850–1900, within which the anthropogenic warming is 1.07 ◦C [1]. The atmospheric general circulation and weather are projected to change. Higher temperature maxima at ground lead to significant decreases in air density and the lift force of departing aircraft; the changes in the prevailing jet may modify optimal flight routes, journey times, and fuel consumption; and the changes of wind shear and atmospheric stability at cruising levels may increase the likelihood of clear-air turbulence breaking out [12,13,14]
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