Abstract

Air pollution is the leading cause of the global burden of disease from the environment, entailing substantial economic consequences. International shipping is a significant source of NOx, SO2, CO and PM, which can cause known negative health impacts. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the health impacts and the associated external costs of ship-related air pollution in the Iberian Peninsula for 2015. Moreover, the impact of CAP2020 regulations on 2015 emissions was studied. Log-linear functions based on WHO-HRAPIE relative risks for PM2.5 and NO2 all-cause mortality and morbidity health end-points, and integrated exposure-response functions for PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, were used to calculate the excess burden of disease. The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to NO2 ship-related emissions was similar to those of PM2.5 ship-related emissions. Estimated all-cause premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 ship-related emissions represented an average increase of 7.7% for the Iberian Peninsula when compared to the scenario without shipping contribution. Costs of around 9 100 million € yr-1 (for value of statistical life approach - VSL) and 1 825 million € yr-1 (for value of life year approach - VOLY) were estimated for PM and NO2 all-cause burden of disease. For PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, a cost of around 3 475 million € yr-1 (for VSL approach) and 851 million € yr-1 (for VOLY approach) were estimated. Costs due to PM and NO2 all-cause burden represented around 0.72% and 0.15% of the Iberian Peninsula gross domestic product in 2015, respectively for VSL and VOLY approaches. For PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, costs represented around 0.28% and 0.06%, respectively, for VSL and VOLY approaches. If CAP2020 regulations had been applied in 2015, around 50% and 30% respectively of PM2.5 and NO2 ship-related mortality would been avoided. These results show that air pollution from ships has a considerable impact on health and associated costs affecting the Iberian Peninsula.

Highlights

  • Air pollution is the leading cause of the global burden of disease (BOD) from the environment, causing substantial economic conse­ quences

  • Estimated all-cause premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 ship-related emissions represented an average increase of 7.7% for the Iberian Peninsula when compared to the scenario without shipping contribution

  • Costs due to particulate matter (PM) and NO2 all-cause burden represented around 0.72% and 0.15% of the Iberian Peninsula gross domestic product in 2015, respectively for value of statistical life (VSL) and value of a life year (VOLY) approaches

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Summary

Introduction

Air pollution is the leading cause of the global burden of disease (BOD) from the environment, causing substantial economic conse­ quences. The authors estimated that 7% and 12% of the total relative external costs in Europe due to air pollution in 2000 and 2020, respectively, were related to international ship traffic. Authors calcu­ lated the costs of the abatement of emissions based on the ship-owners choice between the use of fuel with low content of sulphur and a scrubber They modelled the profits considering the formation and dispersion of the emissions (with SILAM model), and the positive health impacts resulting from the decrease of ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Sofiev et al (2018) estimated public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping for 2020 and reported reductions of 34% and 54% in mortality and morbidity, respectively.

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