Estimating the future clinical and economic benefits of improving osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment among women in South Korea: a simulation projection model from 2020 to 2040.

Abstract

The economic burden of osteoporosis was US $5.1B in 2011 in South Korea. Osteoporosis is expected to strain resources in South Korea as the population most susceptible to osteoporotic fracture, females > 50years old, is projected to increase by 32% from 2020 to 2040. A microsimulation model was developed to project annual incidence and costs of osteoporotic fractures among postmenopausal women from 2020 to 2040. Fracture risk was estimated using the simplified Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). The fracture estimates were based on annualized FRAX risk and impact of treatment. Korean National Health Insurance data informed treatment and case-finding rates in the reference case. Two scenarios were evaluated: 50% increases to (i) case finding (screening rate and subsequent treatment rate) and (ii) treatment rate among those at highest risk. Among individuals modeled in the reference case from 2020 to 2040, 41.2M fractures at a cost of US $263.6B were projected. Increased treatment scenario prevented 4.4M fractures and saved US $13.5B. Increased case-finding scenario prevented 4.0M fractures and saved US $11.1B. Implementation of policies to enable increasing case finding or treatment may result in fewer fractures and substantial cost savings across the healthcare system. These results highlight the importance of early screening, diagnosis, and preventive treatment.