Abstract
Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life, necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities. Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decision-making. This study using the February 6, 2023, MS 8.0 and MS 7.9 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities. An early Quick Rough Estimate (QRE) based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye (AFAD) is conducted, and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available. The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31,384–56,475 based on the "the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3″ rule, which incorporates the reported final deaths 50,500. The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation (QLAE) method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths. The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the MS 8.0 earthquake. In addition, additional earthquakes such as May 12, 2008, MS 8.1 Wenchuan earthquake (China), September 8, 2023, MS 7.2 Al Haouz earthquake (Morocco), November 3, 2023, MS 5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake, December 18, 2023, MS 6.1 Jishishan earthquake (China), January 1, 2024, MS 7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Japan) and August 8, 2023, Maui, Hawaii, fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model. The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an MS 7.4 earthquake. These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation (QLARM) and Prompt Assessment of Global.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
