Estimating the final cost of a DoD acquisition contract

Abstract

The most common technique to determine the predicted final cost of a Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition contract, or the Estimate at Completion (EAC), involves the use of performance indices to adjust the EAC. Other methods including simple linear regression and time series analysis have been developed to predict the final cost, but these methods are not widely publicized or have limited applicability. As a potential remedy, this research utilizes the historical contract data reported in the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary database and provides to the analyst a set of five working multiple regression models. Useful over the life of the contract, they accurately predict the final cost of the average major weapons system contract using contractor Cost Performance Report data.