Abstract
It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area NW. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area.
Highlights
Earthquakes (EQs) in Mexico and the surrounding region of Southern California and Central America are very common and extremely strong, see, e.g., References [1,2,3,4] and references therein
Within the concept of natural time analysis (NTA), it has been shown that the variance κ1 of natural time χ may be considered as an order parameter for seismicity [3,45,46,47,48,49] as well as in acoustic emission before fracture [28,50] or in other self-organized critical phenomena such as ricepiles [51] and avalanches in the Olami–Feder–Christensen [52] earthquake model [53] or in the Burridge–Knopoff [54] train model [55]
The latter are produced by first estimating EQ potential score (EPS) for disks of radius R centered at each point of a square 0.25◦ × 0.25◦
Summary
Earthquakes (EQs) in Mexico and the surrounding region of Southern California and Central America are very common and extremely strong, see, e.g., References [1,2,3,4] and references therein. We employ the natural time analysis (NTA) [5,6,7,8,9,10] and earthquake nowcasting (EN) [11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18] aiming at forecasting the epicenter of such a strong future EQ. Within the concept of NTA, it has been shown that the variance κ1 of natural time χ may be considered as an order parameter for seismicity [3,45,46,47,48,49] as well as in acoustic emission before fracture [28,50] or in other self-organized critical phenomena such as ricepiles [51] and avalanches in the Olami–Feder–
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
