Estimating the emission source reduction of PM 10 in central Taiwan

Abstract

Three theoretical parent frequency distributions; lognormal, Weibull and gamma were used to fit the complete set of PM 10 data in central Taiwan. The gamma distribution is the best one to represent the performance of high PM 10 concentrations. However, the parent distribution sometimes diverges in predicting the high PM 10 concentrations. Therefore, two predicting methods, Method I: two-parameter exponential distribution and Method II: asymptotic distribution of extreme value, were used to fit the high PM 10 concentration distributions more correctly. The results fitted by the two-parameter exponential distribution are better matched with the actual high PM 10 data than that by the parent distributions. Both of the predicting methods can successfully predict the return period and exceedances over a critical concentration in the future year. Moreover, the estimated emission source reductions of PM 10 required to meet the air quality standard by Method I and Method II are very close. The estimated emission source reductions of PM 10 range from 34% to 48% in central Taiwan.