Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing in the Progression Dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

In recent time, COVID-19 has become a serious threat to the human community in terms of health and wealth. The vaccine for COVID-19 has not been discovered till now. Therefore, prevention is the only way to cease the transmission of the COVID-19. In this work, we have formulated a mathematical model based on susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infected, symptomatic infected, hospitalized, recovered and death (SEAIJRD) compartment structure, in which the whole population is assumed to be subcategorized on the basis of infection status of individuals. This formulated model has been applied on the current outbreak data of COVID-19 in India. Using the COVID-19 real outbreak data, some unknown parameters are estimated for this outbreak. On the basis of these estimated parameters, a total number of infected individuals are predicted. Further, social distancing plays a significant role in the transmission of such viral infection. Therefore, to know the effect of social distancing on the transmission of COVID-19 is also needed for understanding the dynamics of disease. For this purpose, we assumed social distancing in term of average contact rate (c). The effect of this average contact rate on the COVID-19 transmission has been estimated. The basic reproduction number (R 0) is also computed for different average contact rate. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed for the basic reproduction number with respect to parameters involved in its expression. This study may be helpful to design or implement control strategy for COVID-19 in India or any other geographical region in the current scenario or future perspective.