Abstract
IntroductionHuman mobility was considerably reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. To support disease surveillance, it is important to understand the effect of mobility on transmission.AimWe compared the role of mobility during the first and second COVID-19 wave in Switzerland by studying the link between daily travel distances and the effective reproduction number (Rt ) of SARS-CoV-2.MethodsWe used aggregated mobile phone data from a representative panel survey of the Swiss population to measure human mobility. We estimated the effects of reductions in daily travel distance on Rt via a regression model. We compared mobility effects between the first (2 March–7 April 2020) and second wave (1 October–10 December 2020).ResultsDaily travel distances decreased by 73% in the first and by 44% in the second wave (relative to February 2020). For a 1% reduction in average daily travel distance, Rt was estimated to decline by 0.73% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.34–1.03) in the first wave and by 1.04% (95% CrI: 0.66–1.42) in the second wave. The estimated mobility effects were similar in both waves for all modes of transport, travel purposes and sociodemographic subgroups but differed for movement radius.ConclusionMobility was associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt during the first two epidemic waves in Switzerland. The relative effect of mobility was similar in both waves, but smaller mobility reductions in the second wave corresponded to smaller overall reductions in Rt . Mobility data from mobile phones have a continued potential to support real-time surveillance of COVID-19.
Highlights
Human mobility was considerably reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic
We found that the effect of a 1% reduction in average daily travel distance on reproduction number (Rt) was of similar magnitude as in the first wave
The results of our study suggest that human mobility remained an important determinant for explaining reductions in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the second wave in Switzerland
Summary
Human mobility was considerably reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. To support disease surveillance, it is important to understand the effect of mobility on transmission. Aim: We compared the role of mobility during the first and second COVID19 wave in Switzerland by studying the link between daily travel distances and the effective reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2. The relative effect of mobility was similar in both waves, but smaller mobility reductions in the second wave corresponded to smaller overall reductions in Rt. Mobility data from mobile phones have a continued potential to support real-time surveillance of COVID-19. Mobile phone data can capture human movements in near-real time and serve as a proxy for population-level mobility under COVID-19 policy measures [5-7]. Mobility data can be linked to epidemiological indicators such as growth rates or Rt to analyse the relationship between mobility and disease transmission [10,11] Insights into this relationship provide an opportunity for real-time monitoring of epidemic trends [3,4] and have implications for the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at reducing mobility [12,13]
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Schedule a callMore From: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
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