Abstract
This paper is an examination of how autoregressive earnings models commonly used to evaluate job-training programs can produce badly biased estimates of both the magnitude and the temporal pattern of program impacts. Ashenfelter's results are used to illustrate this point, and a new, more appropriate model is used to reanalyze his data. Of particular importance is the finding that the decay in Ashenfelter's estimated training effect for men was produced by a time-varying bias in his model.
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