Abstract
When predicting the spread of a disease such as smallpox, knowledge of the transmission parameter, R0, is important. Previous studies have estimated R0 from outbreaks of the disease, but these estimates are prone to uncertainties because of the small population sizes and the short data runs. This study uses data from smallpox deaths in London over the period 1708 to 1748. Although smallpox was endemic in the population at this time, by using an estimator based upon a second order Gaussian filter to fit a nonlinear model to the dynamics of the disease, the disease parameters are obtained, leading to an estimate of R0. The model also reveals the importance of temperature and rainfall on the transmissibility of the disease.
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