ESTIMATING THE DEMOLITION PROBABILITY OF BUILDINGS USING A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH

Abstract

The sources and quantities of construction and demolition waste (CDW) are a major source of uncertainty hindering the optimization of the reverse-logistics network design for this waste stream. This study proposes a bottom-up approach that can be used to forecast the quantities of demolition waste (DW) in a specific region. The proposed method scans each building in a region to determine its age, height, composition and other relevant factors. Given the individual building parameters along with the neighborhood and regional market conditions in which the building is situated, each building is assigned a probability of demolition. The study then describes the methodology by which these individual probabilities are aggregated, along with the anticipated waste from each building, in order to obtain an overall estimation of demolition waste in a region. The main factors constituting this probability are the age at the building level, location or surroundings at the neighborhood level, and the overall market conditions at the regional level. This method is applied in the city of Beirut as a case study. The findings of this study will help in the estimation and mapping of demolition waste generation for any specific year of forecast. The suggested framework can also help decision-makers in optimizing the selection of capacities and locations of CDW treatment facilities to reduce both costs incurred and environmental impacts.