Abstract

At the end of 2005, about 40 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS, most of them adults and 95 percent of them living in developing countries. Although vigorous prevention programs are under way in many countries, about 3 million people still died from AIDS in 2005 and more than 13,000 people became infected with HIV every day [1]. Hence there is an urgent need for stronger and more effective HIV prevention. New technologies are required to augment existing prevention methods. An HIV vaccine could make an enormous difference in the effort to reverse the pandemic, thereby saving tens of millions of lives. Vaccines have been highly cost-effective in fighting other infectious diseases such as polio, smallpox, hepatitis B, yellow fever, and a range of childhood illnesses. A safe, effective, and accessible preventive HIV vaccine would be a hugely valuable addition to the existing array of prevention measures. In a number of modeling exercises, analysts have shown that even a partially effective vaccine could decisively lower the rate of new infections, averting millions of new infections each year [2–4]. In the global effort to develop an HIV vaccine, more than 30 vaccine candidates are currently in trials in 19 developed and developing countries [5]. Among these, a large-scale phase III trial is under way in Thailand, and a major phase IIb trial involving several thousand volunteers is ongoing in Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and North America to obtain proof of concept for a vaccine built on an adenovirus vector platform [6]. The results of these trials over the next few years will help us set a more definitive timeline for the eventual launch and introduction of a vaccine.

Highlights

  • At the end of 2005, about 40 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS, most of them adults and 95 percent of them living in developing countries

  • A third lesson for policy makers is that with private demand for an HIV vaccine among low-risk groups likely to be substantially affected by price, governments and donors will need to design polices to reduce the price of the vaccine to consumers, especially for low-income households

  • While we have already gained some valuable understanding of public and private demand for HIV vaccines from existing studies, additional research on these topics is needed to strengthen ongoing advocacy and planning for eventual vaccine introduction. This type of demand analysis can benefit from parallel efforts to improve demand forecasting for other vaccines and pharmaceutical products and from deeper involvement of modelers, economists, and policy makers from developing countries where the AIDS epidemic is most acute

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Summary

Estimating the Demand for a Preventive HIV

Reliable estimates would help in achieving several policy and advocacy objectives. At the end of 2005, about 40 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS, most of them adults and 95 percent of them living in developing countries. Vigorous prevention programs are under way in many countries, about 3 million people still died from AIDS in 2005 and more than 13,000 people became infected with HIV every day [1]. A large-scale phase III trial is under way in Thailand, and a major phase IIb trial involving several thousand volunteers is ongoing in Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and North America to obtain proof of concept for a vaccine built on an adenovirus vector platform [6]. The results of these trials over the few. Years will help us set a more definitive timeline for the eventual launch and introduction of a vaccine

Why Estimates of Demand Matter
What Do We Know about HIV Vaccine Demand?
Findings
Conclusion
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