Estimating Soil Carbon Stock Changes by Process‐Based Models and Soil Inventories – Uncertainties and Complementarities

Abstract

In this chapter, four examples of scientific questions and challenges in which process-oriented modelling could provide a useful contribution for accounting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes are presented. These challenges include cases i) when measurements are either time-consuming and/or expensive or there are methodological limitations; ii) an attempt to verify the national soil inventory estimates through comparison with process-based model estimates; iii) prediction of the potential impact on SOC changes due to land-use change; and iv) a comparison of different scenarios for mitigating GHG-emissions. We found that the use of process-based models offers a complementary way to account SOC change and provides an option for assessing the potential impact of climate and land-use change on SOC stocks. However, uncertainty in model estimates is inherent and needs to be communicated. Progress has been made in the assessment of uncertainty and there is growing awareness of how this uncertainty can be communicated. Suggestions for collaborative approaches are presented in order to reduce the uncertainties.