Abstract
Rear-end accidents are the most common accident type at signalized intersections because of the different driving tendencies in the dilemma zone (DZ), where drivers are faced with indecisiveness of making “stop or go” decisions at yellow onset. In various researches, the number of vehicles in the DZ has been used as a safety indicator—the more the vehicles in the DZ, the higher the probability of rear-end accidents. However, the DZ-associated rear-end accident potential varies depending on drivers’ driving tendencies and the situations (position and speed) at the yellow onset. This study’s primary objective is to explore how the driving tendency impacts the DZ distribution and the probability of rear-end accidents. To achieve this, three types of driving tendencies were classified using K-means clustering analysis based on driving variables. Further, the boundary of the DZ is determined by logistic regression model of drivers’ stop/go decision. Then, we proposed the conditional probability model of rear-end accidents and developed a Monte Carlo simulation framework to calculate the model. The results indicate that the rear-end accident probability is dependent on the driving tendency even at the same position with the same speed in the DZ. The aggressive type has the highest risk probability followed by conservative and then the normal types. The quantitative results of the study can provide the basis for rear-end accident assessments.
Highlights
Rear-end accidents are common at signalized intersections in China
green signal countdown devices (GSCDs) installation may improve the utilization of the amber time and the capacity of intersection approach road
According to Fu [26], rear-end collisions occur during the phase transition interval based on three premises: (1) the leading vehicle is in dilemma zone (DZ); (2) the leading vehicle decides to stop and decelerates; and (3) the following vehicle fails to stop in the available stopping distance
Summary
Rear-end accidents are common at signalized intersections in China. Besides driver errors, indecisiveness in the dilemma zone (DZ) at signalized intersections is a leading cause of such accidents [1]. To assist drivers with their decision making during the critical phase transition interval, green signal countdown devices (GSCDs) display the remaining seconds of the current signal status through synchronizing with the traffic signal controller. This provides drivers with information on the current phase’s termination in advance. GSCD installation may improve the utilization of the amber time and the capacity of intersection approach road It may evoke risky car-following behavior that results in a much higher incidence of rear-end accidents in the DZ during the flashing green and yellow intervals
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