Estimating poultry aspergillosis prevalence and diagnostic accuracy of histopathological and mycological culture in Côte d’Ivoire using Bayesian latent class analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of poultry aspergillosis and evaluate the accuracy of histopathology (test under evaluation) and mycological culture (an imperfect reference test). Farms raising layer and breeder or broiler birds, with suspected aspergillosis cases, clinical or subclinical, were eligible and visited for sampling. After necropsy, histopathology and mycological culture examinations were conducted by two evaluators. A Bayesian latent class model was used to estimate the accuracy of histopathology when compared to the imperfect reference test, mycological culture. A total of 142 chicken farms, 96 laying and breeding hen farms, and 46 broiler farms were used for the study. True aspergillosis median prevalence was estimated at 63.7% (95% credibility intervals, CrI: 53.8%, 73.0%) in layers and breeders and at 65.2% (95% CrI: 50.2%, 78.3%) in the broiler farms’ population. The median diagnostic sensitivity of histopathology and culture were estimated at, respectively, 98.8% (95% CrI: 94.6%, 100.0%) and 90.4% (95% CrI: 83.6%, 95.3%). Tests’ diagnostic specificity was estimated at, respectively, 97.3% (95% CrI: 87.7%, 99.9%) and 95.7% (95% CrI: 91.8%, 98.2%). Both tests had very high and comparable positive predictive values, but, in a population where disease prevalence was 25%, histopathology had a higher negative predictive value than culture.