Estimating population dynamics trajectories of raptors from a multi-species hierarchical distance sampling model

Abstract

Community dynamics are essential for ecosystems as they support the functioning of food webs and maintain biodiversity. However, the fluctuations of species abundances are rarely analyzed simultaneously despite their interconnectedness across space and time. We developed a Bayesian multi-species model that estimates community- and taxon-level parameters related to dynamics, abundance, detection probability, and environmental stochasticity. From this model, we analyze the variability of populations of a community of raptors composed of accipiters (sharp-shinned hawk [Accipiter striatus], and Cooper's hawk [A. cooperii]), buteos (red-tailed hawk [Buteo jamaicensis], and red-shouldered hawk [B. lineatus]) and owls (great horned owl [Bubo virginianus], and barred owl [Strix varia]). We show that migration pulses of accipiters, buteos, and dispersal of fledging owls drive variation in raptor abundances, indicating a defined production and dispersal period. Also, large-scale climatic processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influenced the variation in abundances of raptors. When the NAO was in a positive phase, the abundance of raptors decreased, and inversely. Local weather did not affect raptor population abundances. Our approach facilitated the modelling of species-specific effects of environmental variation and guild-level dynamics that could be used for ecosystem-based conservation measures.