Estimating Mortality Related to O3 and PM2.5 under Changing Climate and Emission in Continental Southeast Asia

Abstract

Air pollution causes adverse effects not only on the environment but also on human health. This study evaluated the excess mortalities in continental Southeast Asia that are related to future O3 and PM2.5 ambient concentration changes attributed to future climate change and emission change. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was applied as a health impact assessment tool. In BenMAP-CE simulations, baseline scenarios presenting for the present year (2014) were compared against the control scenarios presenting for the future year (2050). The air pollutant concentrations for the simulations were collected from modeled data. The future population data and baseline incidence rates were as same as the 2014 levels. In four calculating countries namely Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, on average, impacted by climate change alone, the avoided mortalities of -1164 and -3358 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario and the additional mortalities of +758 and +2562 under RCP8.5 scenario were calculated for O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Future emission change alone under Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants current legislation (ECLIPSE CLE) scenario induces +7113 and +11072 additional O3 and PM2.5 related mortalities, respectively. Combined change in climate and emission produces additional O3 and PM2.5 related mortalities of +6067 and +7830 under RCP4.5 and ECLIPSE CLE combined scenario and +8763 and +14580 under RCP8.5 and ECLIPSE CLE combined scenario, respectively. The results of this study provided meaningful information for understanding the public health attributed to air pollution in the region.