Estimating morning and evening commute period O3 concentration in Taiwan using a fine spatial-temporal resolution ensemble mixed spatial model with Geo-AI technology

Abstract

Elevated levels of ground-level ozone (O3) can have harmful effects on health. While previous studies have focused mainly on daily averages and daytime patterns, it's crucial to consider the effects of air pollution during daily commutes, as this can significantly contribute to overall exposure. This study is also the first to employ an ensemble mixed spatial model (EMSM) that integrates multiple machine learning algorithms and predictor variables selected using Shapley Additive exExplanations (SHAP) values to predict spatial-temporal fluctuations in O3 concentrations across the entire island of Taiwan. We utilized geospatial-artificial intelligence (Geo-AI), incorporating kriging, land use regression (LUR), machine learning (random forest (RF), categorical boosting (CatBoost), gradient boosting (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting (LightGBM)), and ensemble learning techniques to develop ensemble mixed spatial models (EMSMs) for morning and evening commute periods. The EMSMs were used to estimate long-term spatiotemporal variations of O3 levels, accounting for in-situ measurements, meteorological factors, geospatial predictors, and social and seasonal influences over a 26-year period. Compared to conventional LUR-based approaches, the EMSMs improved performance by 58% for both commute periods, with high explanatory power and an adjusted R2 of 0.91. Internal and external validation procedures and verification of O3 concentrations at the upper percentile ranges (in 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%) and other conditions (including rain, no rain, weekday, weekend, festival, and no festival) have demonstrated that the models are stable and free from overfitting issues. Estimation maps were generated to examine changes in O3 levels before and during the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions. These findings provide accurate variations of O3 levels in commute period with high spatiotemporal resolution of daily and 50m * 50m grid, which can support control pollution efforts and aid in epidemiological studies.