Estimating model variance in the case of undermodeling

Abstract

A reliable quality estimate of a given model is a prerequisite for any reasonable use of the model. The model error consists of two different contributions: the bias error and the random error. In this contribution, it is shown that the size (variance) of the random error can be reliably estimated in the case where a true system description cannot be achieved in the model structure used. This consistent error estimate can differ considerably from the conventionally used variance estimate, which could thus be misleading. >