Estimating Mobile Contactless Payment Systems Usage in Turkey Using Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

Technological developments brought about by digitalization have made several innovations in many areas from economy to social life a part of our lives. The most important of these innovations was the electronicization of trade. Electronic commerce forced payment systems to change and differentiated them. The rapid development of the technology of mobile devices and the rapid spread of use also shaped the change in payment systems. Today we are talking about mobile payment systems. The change in payment systems also caused changes in physical credit cards, and contactless payment systems with credit cards became widespread. Mobile contactless payment systems have also started to be used through applications downloaded to mobile devices without the need for a physical credit card. After the convenience of contactless payment with credit card, many banks started to offer their customers the convenience of contactless payment by mobile phone.
 In this study, the demand for the use of mobile contactless payment systems in Turkey was estimated using the grey prediction model for the coming years. In determining demand forecast, the grey prediction model, which is included in the grey system theory, which was first presented by Deng in 1982, was used. It is a model that is used to make high-precision predictions based on a small number of data and has achieved successful results in many areas. In this study, some of the data were used for estimation and some for analysis of estimation results. In this study, high sharpness results were obtained.