Abstract
As the penetration of wind generation increases, the uncertainty it brings has imposed great challenges to power system operation. To cope with the challenges, tremendous research work has been conducted, among which two aspects are of most importance, that is, making immune operation strategies and accessing the power system's capability to accommodate the variable energy. Driven and inspired by the latter problem, this paper will discuss the power system's capability to accommodate variable wind generation in a probability sense. Wind generation, along with its uncertainty is illustrated by a polyhedron, which contains prediction, risk, and uncertainty information. Then, a three-level optimisation problem is presented to estimate the lower probability bound of power system's capability to fully accommodate wind generation. After reformulating the inner max-min problem, or feasibility check problem, into its equivalent mixed-integer linear program (MILP) form, the bisection algorithm is presented to solve this challenging problem. Modified IEEE systems are adopted to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Highlights
Developing renewable energies, especially wind generation, has been an efficient and effective way for many countries in recent years to solve energy deficiency problem and environmental issues
Stochastic unit commitment (UC) or economic dispatch (ED) is developed based on wind scenarios and the optimal solution is feasible for all scenarios while minimizing the expected power operation cost [14, 15, 16, 17]
After constructing the uncertainty set of wind generation as a polyhedron according to the given probability, the estimation problem is formulated as a three-level optimization problem, which is solved by the presented bisection algorithm
Summary
Developing renewable energies, especially wind generation, has been an efficient and effective way for many countries in recent years to solve energy deficiency problem and environmental issues. The resulted wind generation uncertainty has imposed great challenge on power system operation like unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) [3, 4, 5]. Given a dispatching strategy, the power system can be assessed on how much wind generation it can accommodate, which leads to the problem to be discussed in this paper. Driven by the idea of detecting infeasibility in robust optimization, we present a novel method to estimate the lower probability bound of power system’s capability to fully accommodate variable wind generation. Different from existing works, in this paper, after bridging a given probability with the presented uncertainty set in polyhedron form, the estimation model is formulated to maximize this probability, which provides a metric to depict the guaranteed chance that power system can fully accommodate variable wind generation. Case study is performed in Part 5 and the paper is concluded in Part 6
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