Abstract
Lung cancer is the commonest cancer worldwide. Mortality and incidence rates are traditionally used to assess cancer burden and as public health indicators. However, these metrics are difficult to interpret at an individual level. Providing the lifetime and 10-year risks of cancer could improve risk communication. Our aim was to estimate current lifetime and 10-year risks of lung cancer by smoking status and changes in these risks between 1995 and 2013 in a Swiss population. We used all lung cancer cases recorded between 1995 and 2013 by two population-based cancer registries in the contiguous cantons of Vaud and Valais, in Western Switzerland. We estimated sex-specific lifetime risk and 10-year risk of lung cancer using the current probability method, accounting for competing risk of death. Estimates were also provided by smoking status. Between 1995 and 2013, 9623 cases of lung cancer were recorded. During this period, the lifetime risk decreased in men from 7.1% to 6.7% and increased in women from 2.5% to 4.1%. In both sexes, the 10-year risk of lung cancer increased with age until the age of 60–70 and decreased thereafter. Difference in the cumulative risk between current, former, and never smokers were very large and reported in user-friendly charts to ease risk communication. These lifetime and 10-year risk estimates could be used systematically as public health indicators. Regularly updating risk estimations are necessary for conditions like lung cancer whose incidence has changed substantially.
Highlights
In 2012, lung cancer was the commonest diagnosed cancer in men worldwide and the third most frequently diagnosed cancer in women, after breast and colorectal cancer (Torre et al, 2015)
The standardized incidence rate of lung cancer decreased by 27% in men and increased by 41% in women (Table 1)
Between 1995 and 2013, the lifetime risk of lung cancer in Switzerland has slightly decreased in men from 7.1% to 6.7% while it increased in women from 2.5% to 4.1%
Summary
In 2012, lung cancer was the commonest diagnosed cancer in men worldwide and the third most frequently diagnosed cancer in women, after breast and colorectal cancer (Torre et al, 2015). In Switzerland, between 2008 and 2012, it was the leading cause of cancer death in men and the second cause of cancer death in women, after breast cancer (Arndt et al, 2016). In Switzerland, smoking prevalence peaked in the 1950s in men and in the 1970s among women (Oberli et al, 2016). Lung cancer incidence reached in men a peak in the 1980s and decreased thereafter (JanssenHeijnen and Coebergh, 2003; Levi et al, 1997). The incidence has increased at least since the 1970s (Levi et al, 1997) and, apparently, has not reached a peak yet (Rapiti et al, 2014)
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