Estimating life expectancy among older multimorbid adults to personalize preventive care

Abstract

Abstract Background Providing high value care and avoiding care overuse is a challenge among older multimorbid adults. There is evidence on benefits and harms of cancer screening and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) preventive treatment up to the age of 75. However, this evidence is not directly applicable to older multimorbid patients. Because each cancer and CVD preventive care has a specific lagtime to benefit, many guidelines recommend tailoring preventive care according to the estimated life expectancy (LE). However, there is no tool to estimate LE among multimorbid patients. Our objectives are therefore to develop new mortality risk prognostic indices and to derive a new LE estimator, what will help clinicians tailoring preventive care in older multimorbid adults. Methods and Results We conduct a prospective cohort study by extending the follow-up of 822 patients in Bern, Switzerland, included in the OPtimising thERapy to prevent Avoidable hospital admissions in Mulitmorbid older people (OPERAM) study over 3 years. Detailed information about cancer screening and CVD preventive treatment will be collected. We will identify variables independently associated with mortality and weight the variables to create 1 year and 3 year mortality prognostic indices. We will transform the 3 year prognostic index into a LE estimator. Preliminary results will be presented at the congress. Conclusions We will develop the first life expectancy estimator specifically for older multimorbid adults. This tool will help clinicians to tailor cardiovascular and cancer preventive care in older multimorbid adults. Key messages Because of the lagtime to benefit, personalizing preventive care by estimated life expectancy is recommended. We will provide the first life expectancy estimator for older multimorbid adults.