Abstract
This study used Poisson regression modelling to estimate influenza-associated mortality in New Zealand for 1990–2008. Inputs were weekly numbers of deaths and influenza and RSV isolates. Seasonal influenza was associated with an average of 401 medical deaths annually from 1990 to 2008, a rate of 10·6 (95% CI: 7·9, 13·3) per 100 000 persons per year, which is 17 times higher than recorded influenza deaths. The majority (86%) of deaths occurred in those 65 years and over. There was no clear decline in influenza-associated mortality in this age group over the course of the study period.
Highlights
Standard mortality statistics markedly under-estimate influenza-associated deaths
Seasonal influenza was associated with an average of 401 medical deaths annually from 1990 to 2008, a rate of 106 per 000 persons per year, which is 17 times higher than recorded influenza deaths
Mortality counts for New Zealand from 1990 to 2008 were obtained from the Mortality Collection
Summary
Standard mortality statistics markedly under-estimate influenza-associated deaths. Diagnosis of influenza’s role in precipitating important secondary events (e.g. myocardial infarctions) can be difficult.. Diagnosis of influenza’s role in precipitating important secondary events (e.g. myocardial infarctions) can be difficult.1 This leads to under-diagnosis of influenza as a contributor to morbidity and mortality. Such under-ascertainment is compounded by reporting practices for cause of death, which favour recording chronic diseases as the underlying cause.. Poisson regression models (used in this study) incorporate virological data on the circulation of influenza [and other viruses, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)], and can account for excess mortality beyond seasonal variation. New Zealand’s only previous influenza mortality estimate was based on Poisson modelling for 1980–1992, which produced an estimated average of over 400 influenza-associated deaths per year.. New Zealand’s only previous influenza mortality estimate was based on Poisson modelling for 1980–1992, which produced an estimated average of over 400 influenza-associated deaths per year. New Zealand requires updated information to better inform influenza prevention strategies and to supply a southern hemisphere perspective on the epidemiology and impact of influenza
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