Abstract

In this chapter, we describe a tick-borne disease transmission dynamics model that includes the co-feeding transmission. We focus on the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus transmission, since co-feeding transmission has been recognized as an important route for TBE virus transmission in Europe. Using environmental and surveillance data from a TBE virus endemic area, we show how TBE virus transmission risk in the ecological cycle can change along with the increased temperature. We pay particular attention to data fitting and non-systemic transmission pathways. We demonstrate that the risk of TBE infection is highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment. We also introduce some novel indices to measure the contribution of co-feeding transmission towards the overall TBE prevalence in the zoonotic cycle and to evaluate the impact of predicted climate change on the TBE virus transmission.

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