Estimating household natural gas consumption with multiple regression: Effect of cycle

Abstract

Estimating natural gas consumption is important at energy sector. With this purpose different prediction methods are used. One of these methods is multiple linear regression method which is used in a wide range of applications In this study, multiple linear regression method was used for estimation of gas consumption and effects of cycle were examined. To examine the cycle, the data were divided into 6 pieces. Each piece of data was called as “Model”. The data which is included in these models were gathered from the same months of successive years. In addition a new model named, Model 7 was created by using all the data. Multicollinearity was removed when creating the models. Multiple linear regression method was applied to the models and the gathered results were compared by using mean absolute percent error. The Merged Model which was created by using predictive values of models for 2012 and Model 7 were compared. Mean absolute percent errors of Merged Model and Model 7 were 14.38% and 55.10% respectively.