Abstract
This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF) combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.
Highlights
It is projected that climate changes (SPA 2020 (2013)) and inconsistent system of urban planning (KPZK 2030 (2013)) will have a significant impact on causing negative changes in water regime in Poland until 2030
The present study evaluates whether the Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood (MESEF) method could be used to receive the probability distribution of maximum discharges on the basis of multi-event rainfall simulation
The article presents a new approach to estimating flood quantiles based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events
Summary
It is projected that climate changes (SPA 2020 (2013)) and inconsistent system of urban planning (including accelerated catchment sealing process) (KPZK 2030 (2013)) will have a significant impact on causing negative changes in water regime in Poland until 2030. Forecasts estimate that despite almost unchanged annual precipitation total, the character of this phenomenon will become more random and heavy rainfalls (above 20 mm/day) will likely become noticeable, especially in the southern part of Poland Seeing how these reasons pose challenges that demand appropriate methods of engineering hydrology, the authors undertook to analyse a new approach to estimating probability distribution of maximum annual discharges. A continuous rainfall-runoff model (MORDOR) is used along with rainfall data from multiannual period whose fragments are substituted with synthetic rainfall events This approach makes it possible to obtain the probability distribution of maximum discharges without making assumptions about the condition of the catchment prior to the rainfall – the condition results from a real historical period. In order to prove the validity of the proposed method, the quantiles received from the MESEF were compared with the quantiles received from the classical statistical method
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