Estimating expansion of the range of oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) in theUKfrom 2006 to 2019

Yevhen F Suprunenko,Cerian R Webb,Julia Branson,Christopher A Gilligan,Andrew Hoppit,Matthew D Castle

doi:10.1111/afe.12468

Abstract

AbstractThe expansion of oak processionary moth (OPM) in South‐East England continues despite ongoing efforts to control the pest since its introduction in 2006.Using locations of OPM larval nests, supplied by the Forestry Commission and recorded as part of ongoing surveillance and control measures from 2006 onwards, we show that the expansion of the range of OPM in South‐East England up to 2019 was biphasic with a higher rate of expansion from 2015 onwards.The maximum rate of OPM range expansion in the United Kingdom from 2006 to 2014 was estimated as 1.66 km/year (95% CI = [1.22, 2.09]), whereas the 2015–2019 expansion rate was estimated as 6.17 km/year (95% CI = [5.49, 6.84]). This corresponds to an estimated species range distribution area of 7077 km2in 2019.To explain the faster expansion of OPM range from 2015 onwards, we discuss potential reasons that include: natural capability of species of both short‐ and long‐distance dispersal; external factors such as environmental heterogeneity; a reduction of active control.

Highlights

Invasive insect pests have huge annual economic costs globally (Bradshaw et al, 2016)
We analyse the spread of oak processionary moth (OPM), Thaumetopoea processionea (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae), in South-East England (Fig. 1a)
To facilitate the OPM management and control programme, in this paper we present a detailed analysis of annual surveillance data on OPM nest presence from which we infer the rate of OPM range expansion in the United Kingdom, and estimate the edge of the potentially infested area in subsequent years

Summary

Introduction

Invasive insect pests have huge annual economic costs globally (Bradshaw et al, 2016). Tree and forest pests can have a large long-term economic cost (Hill et al, 2019) and a drastic impact on ecosystem services (Aukema et al, 2011; Boyd et al, 2013). We analyse the spread of oak processionary moth (OPM), Thaumetopoea processionea (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae), in South-East England (Fig. 1a). Oak processionary moth is a destructive pest of oak trees that can cause severe defoliation (Stigter et al, 1997).

Methods

Results

Conclusion