Abstract
This paper presents a general framework that can be used to estimate direct and cross elasticities for freight transport using a network model. This methodology combines operational research (network assignments in a geographical information system) with more classical econometrics (multinomial logit choice models). The application of the method to a real-world case is illustrated by a simple model that relies on the generalized cost of transport as the only explanatory variable in the utility function. The methodological framework allows, however, for the implementation of more complex functions. Beside the generalized cost functions for road, rail and inland waterways transport, the network model needs origin-destination matrixes and digitized networks. They are imported from ETIS Plus, a European transport policy information system. A set of direct and cross elasticities is presented. The estimated values are obtained using two methods: the first computes standard elasticities, while the second estimates arc elasticities. Figures are presented for Europe and for a large region around the Benelux countries, where more competition exists between the three modes of interest.
Highlights
Elasticities are often used in the context of transport policy decisions, to estimate the impacts of a new infrastructure on traffic or on modal split for instance
Given the fact that the generalized cost of transport is the only explanatory variable used in the modal choice analysis, the model performs reasonably well when r is computed at the aggregated level, but that it is sometimes much lower when computed for a single mode
This paper presents a general methodology is able to obtain elasticity estimates for freight transport using a network model
Summary
Spatial scope and zoning may affect estimates These factors must be kept in mind for a fair understanding of the estimated elasticities, their appropriate use in further modeling, as well as benchmark references in further studies. It goes behind the scope of this paper to present an extensive review of the relevant literature, but a recent overview and in-depth discussion can be found in Beuthe et al [1]. The dataset provided by the ETIS Plus European project is extensively used Among other stuff, this database provides origin-destination (OD) matrixes for the 10 NSTR “chapters” (groups) of commodities, both at the NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regional levels. Beside the fact that the results presented in this paper are obtained using exclusively open access data (the ETIS database) and open source and cross-platform software (Nodus, R, MariaDB...), the key contribution of this work is the flexibility of the described framework and the attention paid to the validation of the model
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