Estimating Economic Regional Effects of Euro 2012: Ex-ante and Ex-post Approach

Abstract

Purpose: In this paper we evaluate both ex-ante and ex-post macroeconomic impact of EURO 2012 TM on Polish regions. Methodology: We start with modifying the Keynesian-style multiplier model to investigate the effects of Euro 2012-related spending on local economies. This specifi cation permits us, on the one hand, to easily investigate the impact on each demand component, and, on the other hand, to calculate the magnitudes of these multipliers in order to judge the credibility of potential regional welfare benefi ts. This analysis is strengthened by taking into account the regional supply constraints. The second part of our study is devoted to an econometric estimation of long-run macroeconomic impact. Findings: Our study does not provide a strong evidence of EURO 2012- specifi c effects. We fi nd the regional multipliers’ values ranging from 1,13 to 1,33 for four hosting regions. This translates into an uncommon statement of rather evenly developed regions. The ex-ante study also testifi es of an importance of public expenditure in convergence process. In case of ex-post analysis, the estimates of regional production function reveal a modest positive effect of EURO 2012-related infrastructure spending. However, this effect is small, and there is no statistical evidence that hosting regions recorded an event-specifi c growth boost. Research limitations: Both ex-ante and ex-post studies are sensitive to regional data, therefore, some calculations may suffer from disaggregation error. Additionally, ex-post analysis needs to be repeated in order to gain more insights from historical data. Finally, authors plan to complement the analysis by the Ukrainian study. Originality: This is the fi rst paper to date addressing the EURO 2012 macroeconomic impact from the regional perspective.