Estimating dynamic interactive linkages among urban agglomeration, economic performance, carbon emissions, and health expenditures across developmental disparities

The present study has been designed to analyse the economic, political and social factors affecting foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 38 OECD countries between 1999 and 2023. The study employed the Arellano-Froot-Rogers and Driscoll-Kraay panel data analysis methodsThe present study analyses the impact of political stability, credit allocation, energy use, health expenditures and the unemployment rate on both foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The findings of the study indicate that political stability exerts a positive and significant influence on FDI. Conversely, the allocation of credit by the private sector has been demonstrated to exert a detrimental effect on the growth of GDP, thereby giving rise to concerns regarding the efficacy of credit allocation mechanisms. The utilisation of energy resources has been demonstrated to exert a favourable influence on the economic growth of a nation, thus establishing itself as a significant determinate of GDP growth. Furthermore, the negative impact of general government health expenditures on GDP growth indicates that the effective utilisation of these expenditures should be questioned. The unemployment rate was found to exert a positive effect on GDP growth, a phenomenon that may be attributable to structural unemployment or the informal economy. This study makes significant contributions to the extant literature and to the work of policy makers by analysing the effects of political stability, energy use and economic factors in detail.

Environmental pollution, rapid economic growth, and other social factors have adverse effects on public health, which have consequently increased the burden of health expenditures during the last two decades. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the environment index, as well as economic and non-economic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment, population aging, and secondary education impacts on per capita government and private health expenditures in 13 emerging economies for the time period of 1994–2017. We employ robust econometric techniques in this endeavor of panel data analysis to account for the issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. This study applies the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) bootstrap approach to investigate the presence of panel cointegration and empirical results underscore the existence of cointegration among variables. For the execution of long-run analysis, we incorporate the two latest estimators, i.e., continuously updated-fully modified (CUP-FM) and continuously updated- bias corrected (CUP-BC). Findings of long-run elasticities have documented that the air-pollution indicators, i.e., CO2 emissions and the environment index, have a positive and significant influence on government health expenditures, while in contrast, both factors negatively influence private health expenditures in emerging economies. We find that economic factors such as GDP growth consistently show a positive impact on both government and private health expenditures, whereas, foreign direct investment exhibits a significant negative and positive impact on government and private health expenditures respectively. Findings of non-economic factors can be used to argue that population aging increases health expenditures while secondary education lowers private health spending in emerging markets. Furthermore, empirical analysis of heterogeneous causality indicates that CO2 emissions, the environment index, GDP growth, foreign direct investment, and secondary education have a unidirectional causal relationship with government and private health expenditures. Population aging has a strong relationship of bidirectional causality with government health expenditures and unidirectional causal relationship with private health expenditures. Findings of this paper put forward key suggestions for policy makers which can be used as valuable instruments for better understanding and aiming to maximize public healthcare and environmental quality gains which are highly connected with sustainable GDP growth and developments in emerging economies.

Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?

IntroductionIn 2023, we published widely cited cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) for 174 countries. This update refined our approach by incorporating gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections to adjust target increases in life expectancy and health expenditure. This methodology provides more precise estimates tailored to the economic and health contexts of individual countries, enabling better informed resource allocation decisions.MethodsWe revised our 2023 methodology by integrating International Monetary Fund projections of GDP growth for the next five years to establish customized targets for life expectancy (LE) and health expenditure (HE) growth. This update accommodates countries where the prior assumption of median growth within income groups was less applicable. The CETs were derived so that the effect of new interventions on the evolution of LE and HE is set within predefined goals. To provide guidance on CETs, we projected country-level HE and LE increases by income level based on World Bank data to ensure the estimates align with individual country realities.ResultsThe updated thresholds yielded values consistent with our 2023 estimates, yet notable differences emerged in countries with distinct GDP growth trajectories or unique health spending patterns. For example, thresholds for India and similar countries adjusted upward to reflect ambitious yet realistic targets for HE and LE growth. Across 174 countries, most thresholds remained below one GDP per capita, confirming their relevance for guiding economic evaluations. These nuanced updates demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of our approach in diverse contexts, particularly for low- and middle-income countries.ConclusionsBy incorporating GDP growth projections, this study enhanced the precision of cost-effectiveness thresholds, ensuring their applicability across varying country contexts. These updates provide critical guidance for health systems aiming to balance efficiency, equity, and sustainability, particularly in resource constrained settings.

Overproduction, Accounting Performance, and Gross Domestic Product

This study is to determine the role of remittance on GDP growth in Bangladesh for time series data from 2000 to 2020. Numerous factors influence a country's economic growth, but the foremost concern of the current study is remittance. To assess the association between remittance and GDP growth in Bangladesh gross national savings and gross national expenditure are also taken into consideration. The connection between economic growth and remittances is a subject of debate over the period across the world. In many countries, remittances have positive effect on growth of economy and some have no effect on economic growth, a lot of studies revealed. The primary aim of this study is to examine the association between remittances and economic growth in Bangladesh. For data analysis, the model is constructed with economic growth measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, and three independent variables, namely remittances, gross savings, and gross expenditure. In the case of Bangladesh, the current study has shown a statistically significant long-term positive correlation between remittances and GDP's economic growth. This study contributes to the broader discussion on the influence of remittances on economic development and underscores the notable role of remittances in fostering economic growth in Bangladesh.

In this paper, we examine the extent of the relationship between PC installation and revenue creation using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in different economies and by running a series of Granger causality tests. Our findings show that in developed economies the total PC installation and the PC installation in home market Granger cause GDP growth, whereas GDP growth only Granger causes the PC installation in the market for education. However, in developing economies, there appears to be a unidirectional causality in that GDP growth Granger causes total PC installation, PC installation in education and PC installation in business and government markets. We do not find any PC installation variables Granger causing GDP growth, including PC installation in home market. Overall, our results show that developing economies, unlike developed economies, do not gain from investing in Information Technology (IT) in the short run.

In order to study the influence of urban green space landscape pattern on urban carbon emissions， nighttime lighting data， socioeconomic development data， and land use remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020 are used as the basis of analysis， and the three major coastal economically developed regions in China-Bohai Rim， Yangtze River Delta （YRD）， and Pearl River Delta （PRD） （nearly 100 cities in total） are used as the study area to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban carbon emissions， as well as the influence of urban green space landscape pattern and its spatial and temporal changes. We also explored the influence of 10 urban green space landscape pattern indices on urban carbon emissions by using the random forest model and the Lasso regression model and further analyzed the four factors （number of patches， density of patches， dispersion of patches， and complexity of the shape of patches） that had a greater influence by using the spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model， to explore the results of the spatial and temporal evolution of the influence of the urban green space landscape pattern on carbon emissions. The main findings of this study are as follows： ① Carbon emissions in the three study areas showed a slow growth trend， with the Bohai Rim showing a relatively fast growth rate. Carbon emissions were spatially aggregated in the selected study areas， with the majority of cities in the "high and high" agglomeration and the "low and low" agglomeration regions. There was spatial aggregation of carbon emissions in the selected study areas， with the majority of cities in "high and high" agglomeration and "low and low" agglomeration. The land-averaged carbon emissions in the three study areas were dispersed in all directions， with the economically strong cities as the core， and the overall carbon emission level was dispersed from the center to the surroundings. Additionally， along the rivers and coastal areas， carbon emissions were higher due to the concentration of ports， industrial zones， and cities. ② Landscape occupied by patches， number of patches， and density of patches had a significant negative correlation with urban carbon emissions， which indicates that the higher the number， density， and proportion of the landscape occupied by urban green space patches， the more it could hinder the growth of carbon emissions. On the contrary， the shape index and patch fragmentation index had a positive correlation with urban carbon emissions， indicating that the higher the shape complexity of urban green space patches and the higher the fragmentation degree of patches， the more it promoted the growth of urban carbon emissions. In addition， the aggregation index also showed a significant negative correlation with urban carbon emissions， which indicates that the higher the degree of aggregation of patches， the more it could inhibit the growth of carbon emissions. ③ The correlation between the green space landscape pattern index and carbon emissions showed significant spatial and temporal differences， with large changes around 2010. In the Bohai Rim Region， the influence of the urban landscape pattern index on carbon emissions remained relatively stable， and its influence over time generally showed a decline. In the YRD Region， the shape complexity and dispersion of urban green space had a greater impact on carbon emissions than the number of patches and patch density factors. However， on the contrary， in the PRD Region， the impacts of the number of urban green spaces and density index were increasing. In addition， the spatial influence changes on all showed the clustering of regression coefficients. The impact of urban green space on carbon emissions varied greatly across locations and time， suggesting that policy makers cannot rely on a one-size-fits-all approach to urban green space planning. In the Bohai Rim Region， it is more important to balance the distribution of urban green space with other land uses to maintain stability； in the YRD Region， highly fragmented and overly complex green space patch planning should be reduced； and in the PRD Region， priority should be given to increasing the amount and distribution density of urban green space.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the intricate relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, social dynamics and environmental policies in India from 1990 to 2022. Design/methodology/approach The research employs a range of econometric techniques, including cointegration methods, unit root tests and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) estimation model, to analyse the data spanning 1990 to 2022. The study incorporates interaction terms between key variables such as energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP) growth and technological advancement to explore complex relationships. Findings The results indicate that energy consumption is a significant driver of CO2 emissions in both the long and short term. GDP growth and industrial value-added growth exhibit positive coefficients, suggesting potential increases in emissions, but these effects are not statistically significant. Population growth and urbanisation significantly negatively impact CO2 emissions, particularly in the short run. Including interaction terms between variables, such as energy consumption with GDP growth and technological advancement with GDP growth, reveals complex dynamics. Originality/value While past research has explored the links between economic growth and CO2 emissions, this study offers three key advancements. First, Most existing studies focus on developed countries or global averages. India – with its rapid growth, unique social challenges and evolving climate policies – provides a critical but understudied case. India is now the world’s third-largest CO2 emitter, yet its development path differs from Western nations. Our findings help tailor policies to their context. Second, we employed long-term trends from 1990 to 2022. This 32-year span captures India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s, industrial boom in the 2000s and recent climate commitments. Third, unlike purely economic studies, we analyse how urbanization, education, and inequality intersect with policies. The research offers fresh insights into the complex dynamics at play by incorporating interaction terms and using advanced econometric techniques. The findings emphasise the need for targeted, nuanced policies that consider the multifaceted nature of economic development and environmental sustainability, offering valuable guidance for policymakers striving to balance these critical aspects in India’s context.

“Free” consumer entertainment and information from the Internet, largely supported by advertising revenues, has had a major impact on consumer behavior. Some economists believe that measured gross domestic product (GDP) growth is badly underestimated because GDP excludes online entertainment (Brynjolfsson and Oh 2012; Ito 2013; Aeppel 2015). This paper introduces an experimental GDP methodology that includes advertising-supported media in both final output and business inputs. For example, Google Maps would be counted as final output when it is used by a consumer to plan vacation driving routes. On the other hand, the same website would be counted as a business input when it is used by a pizza restaurant to plan delivery routes. Contrary to critics of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the process of including “free” media in the input-output accounts has little impact on either GDP or total factor productivity (TFP). Between 1998 and 2012, measured nominal GDP growth falls 0.005% per year, real GDP growth rises 0.009% per year and TFP growth rises 0.016% per year. Between 1929 and 1998, measured nominal GDP growth rises 0.002% per year, real GDP growth falls 0.002% per year, and TFP growth rises 0.004% per year. These changes are not nearly enough to reverse the recent slowdown in growth. Our method for accounting for free media is production oriented in the sense that it is a measure of the resource input into the entertainment (or other content) of the medium rather than a measure of the consumer surplus arising from the content. The BEA uses a similar production-oriented approach when measuring GDP. In contrast, other researchers use broader approaches to measure value. Brynjolfsson and Oh (2012) attempt to capture some consumer surplus by measuring the time expended on the Internet. Varian (2009) argues that much of the value of the Internet is in time saving, an additional metric for capturing consumer surplus. The McKinsey Institute (Bughin et al. 2011) attempts to measure the productivity gain from search directly. In particular, this production-oriented accounting has no method to account for instances in which the good or service precedes the revenue that it eventually generates. Over the past two decades, many Silicon Valley firms have followed the disruptive business model described as URL: ubiquity now, revenue later. Some firms have been creating proprietary software or research, which is already captured in the national accounts as investment. Other firms have been creating intangible investments in open source software, customer networks and other organizational capital. Despite their long-run value, none of these intangible assets are currently captured in the national accounts as investment. If we treat these asset categories as capital, then the productivity boom from 1995 to 2000 becomes even stronger and the weak productivity growth of the past decade may be ameliorated somewhat.

The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI

This study explores the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in developing economies. As FDI plays a pivotal role in driving economic progress, understanding its dynamics relative to GDP growth provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors. The manufacturing sector, with its need for cost efficiency, production scale, and infrastructure, attracts FDI when GDP growth fosters these elements. Conversely, the services sector, which relies on skilled labour and technology, benefits from rising GDP, fuelling local demand for services. This research uses historical data, descriptive statistics, and regression analyses to evaluate GDP's impact on FDI from 1970 to 2023. The findings reveal a positive correlation between GDP growth and FDI inflows, with distinct sectoral variations that highlight specific economic demands in manufacturing versus services. The study’s conclusions aim to guide targeted policies for fostering sectoral FDI, supporting balanced and sustainable economic development.

This study investigates the simultaneous openness hypothesis by assessing the importance of trade openness in modulating the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the economic dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, real GDP, and GDP per capita. The focus of the study is on 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period spanning from 1980 to 2014. Trade imports modulate FDI to induce net positive effects on GDP growth and GDP per capita. Trade exports moderate FDI to generate overall positive impacts on GDP growth, real GDP, and GDP per capita. Implications of the study are discussed.

Private savings cannot be observed separately from investments in economic theory. There is a relation between the growth of private savings and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). In transition countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) is in the function of the growth of GDP which, is to a lower extent, applicable for the growth of domestic private savings. In the long-term perspective, economic recovery of these countries should rely on investments through domestic private savings and capital accumulation, as it ensures economic independence and stability of every state. The development base of BH’s economy since 1998 has mainly been based on the policy of attracting foreign investment, through either loans arrangements and foreign direct investments FDIs. This article presents the results of research focused on the growth of private savings and GDP and their relation in BH in the period from 1998 to 2015. The research has been conducted on the basis of data published by official domestic and international organizations (Statistics Agency, banks, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and others). The purpose of the research is to obtain information on the growth tendencies and the strength of the relation of these two aggregates in the mentioned period, which is important for the creation and realization of economic policy.

The Schengen Agreement was created to allow for free movement of people, goods, services, and capital in the Schengen area. Due to the COVID 19 pandemic, some member nations have enacted temporary border controls to stop the spread of the coronavirus. As a result, many members are questioning the relevance of this Agreement. This study examines the impact of the Schengen agreement on member nations’ economic productivity. To determine whether the difference in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth before and after becoming a member of Schengen is due to chance alone or the result of the Schengen agreement; three groups of data on annual GDP growth were acquired: annual GDP growth of Schengen member nations and Non-Schengen European nations, as well as annual global GDP growth. The timing of member enrollment was also considered. While it was hypothesized that the annual GDP growth of a nation would differ by a statistically significant amount after joining Schengen, multiple two sample, two-sided T-Tests and one sample, two-sided Z-Tests found that, overall, the differences in GDP growth were not significant enough to demonstrate joining Schengen positively impacted GDP growth. It must also be noted that there were other overarching trends found in the data, including the impact of the 2007-2008 global fiscal crisis on GDP growth for the three groups. Further research into other unique aspects of Schengen is needed to explain these other effects.