Estimating Duration of Infection with Avidity Assays: Potential Limitations and Recommendations for Improvement

Abstract

Recent infections often have higher pathogen loads. The number of recent infections can therefore be used to estimate transmission rates in a host population. Antibody avidity assays are an emerging technique to infer infection age in both domestic and wild animals. These assays have the potential to supplant intensive mark-recapture efforts for identification of recent infections, but their results may be confounded by antibody titer. We examined the effectiveness of an avidity assay for identifying recent infections of Sin Nombre virus, a hantavirus in North America that establishes a chronic infection in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). We found that assay performance statistics such as sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value for low avidity scores were significantly improved when we accounted for antibody titer in the analyses. Without accounting for titer, avidity assays may classify samples with low titers as recent infections regardless of actual infection history, thereby overestimating the number of recent infections in a population and inflating estimates of transmission rates and/or human exposure risk. We recommend that antibody titers meet a minimum threshold for use in avidity assays, and we emphasize the importance of considering titer and dilution in the validation of newly developed avidity assays.