Estimating disease transmission in a closed population under repeated testing

Abstract

Abstract The article presents a novel statistical framework for COVID-19 transmission monitoring and control, which was developed and deployed at The Ohio State University main campus in Columbus during the Autumn term of 2020. Our approach effectively handles prevalence data with interval censoring and explicitly incorporates changes in transmission dynamics and human behaviour. To illustrate the methodology’s usefulness, we apply it to both synthetic and actual student SARS-CoV-2 testing data collected at the OSU Columbus campus in late 2020.